As of mid-January, the winter of 2025-2026 has been a rough one across much of the Western U.S. so far. However, it has been an excellent season across the Canadian Rockies and across Eastern North America.

In this article, we take a look at the winter so far and offer some thoughts on what the second half of the season may hold, including comparisons to another similar winter, 2017-2018.

Favored Large Scale Patterns So Far in 2025-2026

The dominant pattern so far this winter has featured a high-pressure ridge over the Western U.S., a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, and a trough over Eastern North America, with storms favoring the Canadian Rockies and the Northeast.

Learn More → Ridges and Troughs

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm across the West this winter, especially over the Central Rockies, where 60-day temperature anomalies between mid-November and mid-January have been as much as 9º to 15º F above average!

In fact, 9 out of 11 states in the Western U.S. just experienced their warmest December on record out of 131 years of data, per NOAA's monthly climate report. 

The Northeast is the one area in the Lower 48 that has experienced below-average temperatures so far this winter, which has coincided with a strong start to ski season.

In Canada, temperatures in November-December were above average across Southern BC but the anomalies were less extreme compared to the Western U.S. In Eastern Canada, temperatures have been near to below average, while in Northern BC and Alaska, temperatures have been colder than average.

There have been some similarities with this pattern so far compared to what we projected in our last winter forecast preview back in November.

We were expecting high-pressure ridging to dominate parts of the West with colder and more active conditions for the East. And while there have been some local/regional exceptions, of course, the big picture pattern has largely played out similarly to our expectations so far.

Next, let's take a look at snow conditions so far by region...

Western U.S.

It's a mixed bag across the West, and there has been some improvement over the first two weeks of January. But overall, it's been a very sluggish start to the season for many areas.

Colorado, for instance, currently has its lowest snowpack statewide since at least 1987 (fewer Snotel stations with historical data are available prior to 1987 here).

Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon are also having rough seasons with well-below-average snowpack.

Washington has seen a wet winter so far, but warm temperatures early in the winter resulted in significant rainfall, and snowpack is below average here as well, despite an increase in snowfall in recent weeks.

The Northern Rockies are in better shape, with some areas currently experiencing an above-average snowpack, especially over Western Wyoming. However, this primarily accounts for high-elevation terrain, as lower-elevation snowpack is significantly lacking in some areas due to warm temperatures.

In the Sierra and at Tahoe, snowpack conditions have also improved substantially thanks to a couple of huge storm cycles in late December and early January. Before the Christmas storm cycle, there was very little snow in the Sierra, so the comeback in recent weeks has been substantial.

Western Canada:

British Columbia and Alberta have had a much stronger start to the winter season (with a few exceptions) compared to the Western U.S. 

An active storm track has resulted in frequent early-season storms, and temperatures have not been as anomalously warm compared to the Western U.S.

Many locations in Eastern BC and Western Alberta, such as Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, and Lake Louise, experienced their snowiest December on record, and skiing conditions have been fantastic in these areas.

Southwest BC, including Whistler, has not had as good a start to the season as the Interior. The Southern Mainland and Vancouver Island both have a below-average snowpack, due in part to warm temperatures and rain events. Whistler's upper mountain has held up well, though, and conditions have improved in recent weeks.

The map below covers British Columbia, but the Alberta Rockies have done just as well, if not better than Eastern BC.

Eastern North America:

It has been a strong start to the season from the Upper Midwest to the East, thanks to colder temperatures and, for some areas, frequent snowfall.

Snowpack maps, such as what we have for the West (thanks to snow telemetry sites) are not as readily available in the East, but a long-duration period of cold temperatures and good snowmaking early in the season, along with frequent natural snowfall, set the East up for a fantastic start.

There have been some brief warm spells and rain events in recent weeks following a strong November and early December, but overall, conditions are still in great shape.

Snow depth at the top of Mt. Mansfield in Northern Vermont is 65 inches as of January 14, which is well above its average for the date of 40 inches, and is the 6th deepest on record for this date since 1955.

Alaska:

So far this season, Alaska has been the tale of two regions, with snowpack in South Central Alaska trailing behind normal, while Southeast Alaska's snowpack has had a healthy start to the season.

In early December, persistent blocking high pressure in the Bering Sea sent cold, dry Arctic air over Alaska. Many weather stations across the state saw near-record cold monthly temperatures for December. This period coincided with a 19-day dry streak in the Chugach, and snowpack quickly fell behind normal with the lack of accumulation.

Southeast Alaska sat on the northern periphery of the storm track, meaning that storms arrived with low snow levels, and the near sea-level snowpack boomed.

A 4-day storm closed out the end of 2025 and brought all-time record snow depths to Juneau at 50", with their observational period of record ranging back to 1936. Since upper elevations typically sit above the rain-snow line, mountain snowpack was not off-the-charts, but above normal.

In January, the pattern has shifted a bit with much warmer temperatures resulting in low to mid elevation rain over Southeast Alaska, while South Central Alaska has experienced a snowier pattern with snow depths trending toward average at Alyeska.

 

Looking Ahead to the Rest of the 2025-2026 Season:

Back in the fall, we discussed the weak La Niña phase and easterly QBO phase expected this winter. This has gone according to forecast so far, but there are some changes ahead as we look deeper into the year.

Easterly QBO Plus a Fading La Niña

In our winter forecast preview, we discussed how a weak La Niña combined with an easterly QBO tends to favor high-pressure ridges in the Western U.S. and troughs in the East, and that has been the case so far this season.

While we still have a solidly easterly QBO phase that should last through the end of the season, La Niña is expected to fade to a neutral pattern later this season.

We are already seeing a weakening cold pool over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific as of mid-January, and warm ocean anomalies building in the Western Pacific are likely to push eastward heading into the late winter and spring.

NOAA's latest ENSO outlook calls for a transition to Neutral conditions between January and March, along with growing confidence that we will transition to an El Niño during the summer of 2026. 

Parallels Between 2025-2026 and 2017-2018

One of our strongest analogs heading into this winter was the winter of 2017-2018, as this also featured a weak La Niña that faded late in the season and a strong easterly QBO phase.

So far, there have been many similarities between the two winters.  La Niña will likely fade a bit sooner this season compared to 2018, but the overall pattern and trajectory are similar. 

If we look at snowpack across the Western U.S. as of mid-January 2018, the big picture has a similar look with near to above-average snowpack over the Northern Rockies and below-average snowpack elsewhere.

There are a couple of exceptions, as you would expect in any winter. One difference is that California snowpack was much lighter by this point in 2018 compared to this year. Also, Montana snowpack was better by this point in 2018 compared to this winter. But overall, many similarities. 

 

While not as extreme as this winter, temperatures were also well-above-normal across much of the West during the first half of the winter in 2017-2018, and the above-average snowpack anomalies across the Northern Rockies primarily applied to higher-elevation locations. 

Temperatures were also colder than average across the East from November to January in 2017-2018, and this also ended up being an outstanding winter for the East with a strong start to the season.

The winter of 2017-2018 was excellent across Western Canada overall. Though interestingly enough, snowpack on January 1st was right around average, indicating that conditions really picked up later in the season, whereas 2025-2026 has had a very strong start to the season.

While no two winters are exactly the same, big picture, there are many similarities between how the first half of this winter has played out compared to 2017-2018, and this also coincides with oceanic-atmospheric signal similarities, including a weak and fading La Niña and a strong easterly QBO.

February-March of 2018:

For the rest of January 2026, we are expecting a drier and warmer-than-average pattern across much of the West, with a high-pressure ridge being the dominant feature. Across the East, we are expecting colder-than-average temperatures along with snow chances. 

During the winter of 2017-2018, we faced a similar outlook heading into February as what we will likely be facing this year... a subpar winter-to-date for most of the West (except Interior Canada), and a strong winter in the East.

During February and March of 2018, most areas did not see a late-season miracle. But, the previously stagnant western ridge/eastern trough pattern did mix up a bit, and most areas of the West saw colder temperatures and at least some improvement in terms of snowfall... especially the Northern Rockies and the Northwest, but even southern areas to a lesser extent.

Let's take a closer look at how this season played out...

In February 2018, we saw a much different pattern emerge vs. December-January, with a ridge shifting westward away from the West Coast, a trough-dominant pattern becoming established over the Northern Rockies, and a ridge-dominant pattern setting up over the Eastern U.S.

We saw a flip to colder temperatures across the Northwest and the Northern Rockies, and to a lesser extent the Sierra, in February 2018, while stubborn warmth prevailed over the Central and Southern Rockies, especially early in the month. In the East, a major flip to above-average warmth occurred.

We also saw above-average precipitation (and snowfall) anomalies emerge over the Northwest and the Northern Rockies, and even into Northern Colorado, while California and Oregon were much drier than average. Utah and Southern Idaho were also drier than average.

These maps cover the U.S., but Western Canada also saw a cold and snowy February in 2018.

I should note that this dominant pattern, at least across the West, did not become established until close to mid-month, as the beginning of February featured continued high pressure and above-average warmth, before cooler temperatures and heavier snowfall arrived during the second half of the month.

We're seeing the potential for a similar signal in 2026, with a high pressure signal showing back up heading into early February, with warm and dry conditions possible across the Central Rockies and warm storms (with high snow levels) possible across the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

But perhaps there could be a flip to better skiing weather later in the month, similar to 2018? That is the hope for Western skiers, at least.

In March 2018, we saw another shift with a trough-dominant pattern becoming more established along the West Coast and along the East Coast. There was no dominant signal across the Central U.S., indicative of a progressive pattern with many storms tracking across North America.

Temperatures in March 2018 were colder than average across Western Canada (not pictured), the Northern Rockies, Northwest U.S., and California, and near average in Utah.

Once again, stubborn warmth held on over Colorado and New Mexico, which gives us some clues that the similar stubborn warmth may largely persist across this region in 2026, though it's reasonable to expect anomalies will probably subside (i.e. not as far above average) later this season. 

Also, colder-than-average temperatures returned to most of the Eastern U.S. in March, following a one-month period of above-average warmth in February. 

In terms of precipitation and snowfall, March was a very active month across California, and the Sierra and Tahoe received heavy snowfall. Following a very dry December-February, the season ended on a high note in Tahoe at least, even if snowfall for the season still ended up below average.

Elsewhere, March of 2018 was also a good snow month for Northern Utah and the Northern Rockies, as well as Western Canada, while Colorado and New Mexico saw a return to drier-than-average conditions.

In the East, precipitation anomalies were mixed, but several powerful nor'easters brought heavy snow to the Northeast and New England in March 2018.

Snowpack by the first of April in 2018 was above average across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, and below average across Oregon, California, and the Southern U.S. Rockies, though most areas saw improvement in February-March compared to December-January.

 

2017-2018 was an outstanding season across British Columbia and Alberta, with widespread above-average snowpack by the beginning of April. So far, 2025-2026 has played out similarly to this across the Interior of BC and Alberta, while the Coast Range has some catching up to do after a slow start in 2025-2026.

Across South Central Alaska, the start of 2017-2018 was similar to this year with generally below-average snowpack but some ups and downs through the season with snowpack occasionally approaching average.

Snowpack at Alyeska's mid-mountain ended up below average on April 1st, as can be seen in the blue line in the chart below. The black line indicates the average, and the red line indicates this year, 2025-2026 (so far).

Southeast Alaska (Eaglecrest/Juneau) was also below average throughout 2017-2018, which is not a trend that we are seeing so far this year after heavy snowfall in December of 2025. 

European Seasonal Model Outlook for February-March 2026

Seasonal weather models have their limitations, though the European Seasonal Model tends to be more reliable than others.

Just out of curiosity, I looked at this model for February-March of 2026 and compared it to 2018, and found some similarities.

This model is projecting above-average warmth to persist over the Southern and Central Rockies in February, with near-average temperatures (but colder, relatively speaking) over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. This is a somewhat similar look for the West compared to 2018.

For March of 2026, this model continues to indicate above-average temperatures over the Southern Rockies, but near-average temperatures over California and the West Coast, and across the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Colder-than-average temperatures are also projected for Southeast Alaska and Northern BC.

One interesting difference in this model projection vs. 2018 is that this model is projecting colder/near-average temperatures across the East in February and warmer-than-average temperatures in March, which is the reverse of what happened in 2018. 

In terms of precipitation, the European Seasonal Model is projecting above-average anomalies over the Northwest and Northern Rockies, and even across Western Colorado, in February.

Most other areas in the West do not have any clear signals based on this model projection, except for drier signals from Western BC to Alaska.

This model is also projecting a wetter (and maybe snowier?) signal for much of the East in February. 

For March of 2026, we continue to see a wet signal across the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada, but also extending into the Tahoe region (similar to 2018), and even into Northern Utah and Western Colorado.

Main Takeaways:

Every winter season is unique, but the 2017-2018 winter seems to give us a general idea of some things to look for, big picture-wise, during the second half of this season. And this also includes some support from the European Seasonal Model.

Here are some things I'll be watching for in February and March of 2026:

1) Western Canada, especially the Interior, remains favored: It has been a great start to the season for Interior BC and Alberta, and while we may not see a repeat of December, the signs all point toward a continued active pattern with frequent storms in February-March. Coastal BC should also see improvement, as long as temperatures behave.

2) Eventually, a more active pattern for the Western U.S.: I don't expect any miracle comebacks for areas with below-average snowpack right now. But in seasons with stagnant early to mid-winter high-pressure ridges, we usually see somewhat more progressive patterns later in the season as the days get longer and the atmosphere becomes more well-mixed.

3) Possible strong late season for the Northern U.S. Rockies: This winter has followed similarly to 2018 across the Northern U.S. Rockies, with deep snowpack across the higher elevations, and shallow snowpack over the lower elevations due to warm temperatures and rain. Starting around mid-February of 2018, the Northern Rockies saw a much better pattern emerge with colder storms and heavy snowfall. Could we see a similar late-season finish in 2026?

4) Pacific Northwest Uncertainty: The Pacific Northwest, mainly Washington, is more of a wild card. The season is off to a rough start there due to frequent heavy rain events. There are signs that the second half of the season could turn snowier and colder across Washington, but if anomalous warmth creeps northward at all, that could change the outlook for Washington.

Confidence is lower in late-season patterns for Oregon, which has had an even slower start to the season compared to Washington.

5) Stubborn warmth may hold over Utah, Colorado, the Southwest, and the Central Rockies: This year has played out similarly to 2018, though even more extreme in terms of warmth. Unfortunately, all signs point toward continued above-average warmth this winter, though anomalies will probably not be as extreme compared to November-January.

6) More variable second half of winter for the East: The 2018 analog year and the European Seasonal Model both indicate we could see alternating stretches of warm patterns interspersed with returns to colder patterns. Late winter can sometimes produce epic Nor'easters on the East Coast when we often see a more progressive pattern with strong temperature gradients between warm and cold airmasses, so that will be something to watch for.

Thanks so much for reading!

As always, be sure to check out our detailed snow and weather forecasts, high-resolution map layers, and analyses from local experts for the latest.

Alan Smith